Warmists now complain that cold summers could last another 10 years

The warmists are now complaining about "awful" summers in Britain with "below-average temperatures and sunshine, and above-average rainfall" that could last "until 2023." This follows their prior complaints about potentially deadly summer heatwaves, and that alleged warming would cause above-average rainfall. 

Related: A data review to supplement the UK Met Office ‘Disappointing Weather Meeting’

Britain's spell of awful summers is set to continue

By warmist Leo Hickman, The Guardian, 18 June 2013

Forecast that UK could be in middle of 10-20 year 'cycle' of wet summers delivered following gathering at Met Office

Jo Swinson's proposals aim to combat appeals which 'end up being unnecessarily lengthy and costly.' Photograph: Rex Features

Don't worry, summer is on its way – but you might have to wait until 2023.

As the prospect of another gloomy Glastonbury and wet Wimbledon looms, leading climate scientists have warned that the UK could be set for a further five to 10 years of washout summers.

The grim conclusion was delivered after an unprecedented gathering of scientists and meteorologists at the Met Office in Exeter to debate the range of possible causes for Europe's "unusual seasonal weather" over recent years, a sequence that has lasted since 2007.

Many will have hoped for news of sunnier times ahead. But after experts brainstormed through the day they delivered the shock finding that the UK could be in the middle of a 10-20 year "cycle" of wet summers. The last six out of seven summers in the UK have seen below-average temperatures and sunshine, and above-average rainfall.

Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre and professor of meteorology at the University of Reading, stressed that the finding was not an official long-term forecast and does not automatically mean the UK will now have a further decade of wet summers. But, he said, the scientists' conclusion was that the chances of this occurring are now higher than they first thought.

"Predicting when this cycle will end is hard," said Belcher, who led the meeting of 25 scientists. "We have seen similar patterns before – in the 1950s and the 1880s – and we have hints that we are coming towards the end of this current cycle. However, it might continue for the next five to 10 years. There is a higher probability of wet summers continuing. But it's very early days in trying to understand why this is happening."

The scientists must now address what "dynamical drivers" are causing this cycle, Belcher said. The meeting debated a range of possible interconnected reasons for the unusual weather of recent years, including this year's cold spring and the freezing winter of 2010/11. The most likely cause for the wet summers, he said, was the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, or AMO, a natural pattern of long-term changes to ocean currents.

Other candidate causes that could be "loading the dice", as Belcher described it, include a shift in the jet stream, solar variability and fast-retreating Arctic sea ice. Aggravating all of these factors could be the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere.

Dr James Screen, who studies how melting sea ice impacts on the jet stream at the University of Exeter, said: "There has been a lot of talk about declining Arctic sea ice playing a role in our weather patterns, but really that's just one aspect of changes in the Arctic climate – which has seen rapid warming compared to other parts of the world. Those changes mean there is less of a difference in temperature between the Arctic and tropics, which could impact the position of the jet stream."

The scientists also debated how melting sea ice should be better incorporated into climate models, as well as how observational data – for example, deep-ocean temperatures – could be improved to help their understanding of the potential relationship between climate change and the recent run of inclement weather and record-breaking extremes.

Len Shaffrey, a climate modeller based at the University of Reading who is also currently investigating possible links between Arctic sea ice retreat and European weather, said: "There are some fascinating science questions emerging about the influences on our weather, for example, from natural variations in ocean temperature. There is also some evidence that the record low amounts of Arctic sea ice have influenced patterns of European and British weather, but this evidence is not yet conclusive either way."

The scientific debate about the role of the jet stream – the fast "river" of meandering, 10km-high air which greatly determines UK weather - is intensifying. This week researchers from the University of Sheffield published a study in the International Journal of Climatology showing how "unusual changes" to the jet stream caused the "exceptional" melting of the Greenland ice sheet during the summer of 2012. Scientists say they must now determine what is causing these "displacements", as they are known, in the jet stream.

Tourist bosses were trying to find silver linings. David Leslie, a spokesman for the tourism agency Visit Britain, said people did not come to the UK for the weather alone. "The weather here is as unpredictable as anywhere else," he added.

"The days of the UK being seen as a foggy, wet destination have passed. Hot, cold or mildly pleasant, the weather is not a deterrent for overseas visitors coming here to enjoy Britain's tourism offering, which remains the best in the world."

The Fanaticism of the Apocalypse- environmentalism as a messianic religion

Notable & Quotable

Pascal Bruckner on environmentalism as a messianic religion.

WSJ.COM 6/19/13: From Pascal Bruckner's new book, "The Fanaticism of the Apocalypse":

Consider the meaning in contemporary jargon of the famous carbon footprint that we all leave behind us. What is it, after all, if not the gaseous equivalent of Original Sin, of the stain that we inflict on our Mother Gaia by the simple fact of being present and breathing? We can all gauge the volume of our emissions, day after day, with the injunction to curtail them, just as children saying their catechisms are supposed to curtail their sins. . . .

Ecologism, the sole truly original force of the past half-century, has challenged the goals of progress and raised the question of its limits. It has awakened our sensitivity to nature, emphasized the effects of climate change, pointed out the exhaustion of fossil fuels.

Onto this collective credo has been grafted a whole apocalyptic scenography that has already been tried out with communism, and that borrows from Gnosticism as much as from medieval forms of messianism. Cataclysm is part of the basic tool-kit of Green critical analysis, and prophets of decay and decomposition abound. They beat the drums of panic and call upon us to expiate our sins before it is too late.

Prior posts on environmentalism as the new religion

New paper finds increased CO2 improves both the productivity and nutritional quality of spinach

A new paper published in Advances in Space Research finds increased levels of CO2 promote spinach productivity and accumulation of vitamin C in spinach leaves. According to the authors, "High light and high CO2 independently one from the other, promoted spinach productivity, and the accumulation of ascorbic acid [vitamin C], while their interactive effect limited the accumulation of nitrate and oxalic acid in the spinach leaves." Decreased oxalic acid is beneficial for human nutrition because oxalic acid blocks absorption of essential minerals. 

Influence of the interaction between light intensity and CO2 concentration on productivity and quality of spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) grown in fully controlled environment

Author(s): Simona Proietti , Stefano Moscatello , Gene A. Giacomelli , Alberto Battistelli

Abstract: The effects of the factorial combination of two light intensities (200 and 800 μmol m-2 s-1) and two CO2 concentrations (360 and 800 ppm) were studied on the productivity and nutritional quality of spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) grown under controlled environment. After 6 weeks within a growth chamber, spinach plants were sampled and analyzed for productivity and quality. There were no statistically significant interactions between the effects of light and CO2 for all of the variables studied, except for the nitrate and oxalic acid content of the leaves. High light and high CO2 independently one from the other, promoted spinach productivity, and the accumulation of ascorbic acid [vitamin C], while their interactive effect limited the accumulation of nitrate and oxalic acid in the spinach leaves. The results highlight the importance of considering the effects of the interaction among environmental variables on maximizing production and the nutritional quality of the food when cultivating and modeling the plant response in controlled environment systems such as for bioregenerative life support.

Related posts on CO2 greening the planet

New paper finds another non-hockey-stick in England

A new paper published in Quaternary Science Reviews reconstructs tree-ring proxies for both temperature and precipitation over the past 400 years from 1610-2003. Data from the paper shows another non-hockey-stick from the temperature and precipitation proxies [d18O and tree-ring width] with multiples periods during the 1600's and 1800's warmer and wetter than at the end of the record in 2003. 

d18O from tree-rings and tree-ring width are proxies for both precipitation and temperature and show similar trends.

Prior posts on non-hockey-sticks

400-year May-August precipitation reconstruction for Southern England using oxygen isotopes in tree rings

Rinne, K. T.; Loader, N. J.; Switsur, V. R.; Waterhouse, J. S.

Abstract: Few long and well-dated summer precipitation reconstructions that extend beyond the longest records of instrumental measurements exist in Europe. Further understanding of the past trends in summer precipitation and the mechanisms driving that variability are necessary to improve the predictions of climate models. Tree rings are unique in their ability to provide high-resolution, absolutely dated climate signals for the study of palaeoclimatology. The physiological processes controlling oxygen isotope composition (δ¹⁸O) in wood are reasonably well understood highlighting its potential as a climate proxy in a variety of environments. Significant correlation between wood δ¹⁸O and precipitation has been demonstrated worldwide reflecting both direct rainout processes and indirectly evaporative enrichment. We present an annually resolved reconstruction of precipitation based upon oxygen isotope variations in tree ring cellulose covering the most recent ˜400 years for England. The May-August precipitation series, which was formed by combining reconstructed values based on oxygen isotope composition (δ¹⁸O) in tree ring cellulose of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) (1613-1893) and instrumental data (1894-2003), indicates significant decadal and centennial precipitation variability culminating in dry conditions in the early-middle 17th century and the late 20th century. The analysis demonstrated statistically robust May-August precipitation signal in the δ¹⁸O values of oak cellulose back to 1697, the first year of the oldest instrumental precipitation series in England.

New paper finds no evidence of ocean 'acidification' in upper Santa Monica Bay

A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds no evidence of ocean "acidification" in the upper 100 meters of the Santa Monica Bay from bi-weekly observations over the past six years. According to the authors, "No statistically significant linear trends emerge in the [biologically significant] upper 100 meters." 

Key points from prior posts on ocean "acidification":

• Doubling of atmospheric levels would only increase dissolved CO2 in the oceans by .48%
• There is no reliable evidence that ocean pH is falling
• Increased CO2 dissolution in the oceans increases calcification of shellfish and coral
• Corals evolved at a time when CO2 levels were 15 times higher than the present
• Laboratory experiments on sea life in which hydrochloric acid is added to the water (not CO2) and without the natural buffers present in the ocean is meaningless to determine effects of increased CO2 levels on sea life
• prior research has failed to consider that organisms can adapt over time to pH changes
• several marine organisms have been shown to be resistant to "acidification"
• prior research has shown the oceans are a net source of CO2 rather than a sink

Variability and trends of ocean acidification in the Southern California Current System: A timeseries from Santa Monica Bay

A. Leinweber, N. Gruber

Abstract: We investigate the temporal variability and trends of pH and of the aragonite saturation state, Ωarag, in the southern California Current System on the basis of a 6 year timeseries from Santa Monica Bay, using bi-weekly observations of dissolved inorganic carbon and combined calculated and measured alkalinity. Median values of pH and Ωarag in the upper 20 m are comparable to observations from the subtropical gyres, but the temporal variability is at least a factor of 5 larger, primarily driven by short-term upwelling events and mesoscale processes. Ωarag and pH decrease rapidly with depth, such that the saturation horizon is reached already at 130 m, on average, but it occasionally shoals to as low as 30 m. No statistically significant linear trends emerge in the upper 100 m, but Ωarag and pH decrease, on average, at rates of -0.009 ± 0.006 yr-1 and -0.004 ± 0.003 yr-1 in the 100 to 250 m depth range. These are somewhat larger, but not statistically different from the expected trends based on the recent increase in atmospheric CO2. About half of the variability in the deseasonalized data can be explained by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with warm phases (El Niño) being associated with above normal pH and Ωarag. The observed variability and trend in Ωarag and pH is well captured by a multiple linear regression model on the basis of a small number of readily observable independent variables. This permits the estimation of these variables for related sites in the region.

New paper finds the Indian winter and summer monsoons are driven by solar activity

A paper published today in The Holocene finds that the Indian winter and summer monsoons are driven by changes in solar activity. According to the authors, "Most of these periodicities [cycles in monsoon intensity] are consistent with known solar irradiance cycles, which drive the decadal- to centennial-scale variability of the summer monsoon." The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed publications demonstrating that the most influential weather and climate patterns on Earth including the Indian monsoons, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation are driven by solar activity. The IPCC dismisses the role of the Sun in climate change by only considering tiny changes in total solar irradiance while ignoring amplification via ocean and atmospheric oscillations, clouds, and ozone.

Mid- to late-Holocene Indian winter monsoon variability from a terrestrial record in eastern and southeastern coastal environments of Sri Lanka

1. PN Ranasinghe et al

Abstract

The southeastern coastal plain of Sri Lanka contains Holocene sediment archives representing the winter monsoon variability because this region is protected from both summer monsoon and cyclonic rainfall. Chemical, biological, mineralogical, and physical climate proxies were studied in sediment cores extracted from three different coastal estuaries and lagoons situated on the southeastern coast to derive winter monsoon variability. These cores displayed minimum influence of sea level-related changes in sediments. Clay normalized proxy records suggest intervals of aridity from >7300 to ~6750, semi-aridity from ~6250 to 4600 yr BP [years before the present], and aridity from ~4000 to 3000 and ~1100 to < 500 cal. yr BP, with a short wet interval from ~6500 to 6250 cal. yr BP, and a wet interval from ~3000 to 1500 yr BP. Our results match the timing of previously published climate events for Holocene variations in the Indian summer monsoon. Wavelet analysis of the detrended climate proxy records identify significant periodicities at: ~20 ~28–32, ~64, ~100, ~128, ~192, ~256 yr in our data. Most of these periodicities are consistent with known solar irradiance cycles, which drive the decadal- to centennial-scale variability of the summer monsoon. Our multiproxy record for mid- to late-Holocene climate in southeastern Sri Lanka documents that Indian winter monsoon variability is statistically similar to Indian summer monsoon variability, suggesting similar forcing mechanisms.

New paper finds another non-hockey-stick in the Atlantic Ocean

A paper published today in The Holocene finds another non-hockey-stick from reconstructed sea surface temperatures in the NE Atlantic and Nordic Seas over the past millennium. Plot of the data from the paper shows sea surface temperatures were higher during the Medieval Warming Period 1000 years ago than at the end of the record in 1975. 

Plot of the data from the paper shows sea surface temperatures were higher during the Medieval Warming Period 1000 years ago that at the end of the record in 1975. Note vertical axis is inverted because the proxy is inversely related to sea surface temperature.  

Update: Multiproxy data from the source noted in comment below also shows warmer temperatures during the Medieval Warming Period than at the end of the record in 1975:

Prior posts on non-hockey-sticks

Reconstructions of surface ocean conditions from the northeast Atlantic and Nordic seas during the last millennium

1. Laura K Cunningham et al

Abstract

We undertake the first comprehensive effort to integrate North Atlantic marine climate records for the last millennium, highlighting some key components common within this system at a range of temporal and spatial scales. In such an approach, careful consideration needs to be given to the complexities inherent to the marine system. Composites therefore need to be hydrographically constrained and sensitive to both surface water mass variability and three-dimensional ocean dynamics. This study focuses on the northeast (NE) North Atlantic Ocean, particularly sites influenced by the North Atlantic Current. A composite plus regression approach is used to create an inter-regional NE North Atlantic reconstruction of sea surface temperature (SST) for the last 1000 years. We highlight the loss of spatial information associated with large-scale composite reconstructions of the marine environment. Regional reconstructions of SSTs off the Norwegian and Icelandic margins are presented, along with a larger-scale reconstruction spanning the NE North Atlantic. The latter indicates that the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ warming was most pronounced before AD 1200, with a long-term cooling trend apparent after AD 1250. This trend persisted until the early 20th century, while in recent decades temperatures have been similar to those inferred for the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’. The reconstructions are consistent with other independent records of sea-surface and surface air temperatures from the region, indicating that they are adequately capturing the climate dynamics of the last millennium. Consequently, this method could potentially be used to develop large-scale reconstructions of SSTs for other hydrographically constrained regions.

Paper finds ~50% of warming over past 30 years was due to natural ocean oscillations

A paper presented at the NTU International Science Conference on Climate Change finds that the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO] and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO] are responsible for about 50% of the warming observed over the past 30 years. According to the author, "In the past 30 years, the two multi-decadal oscillations contribute about half of the global mean surface temperature warming." Prior research has shown that solar activity changes were responsible for at least 50% of the observed warming over the past century. In addition, solar activity has been shown to influence ocean oscillations. Thus, most or all of the observed warming in recent decades can be attributed to natural causes.  

An Observational Analysis of Oceanic and Atmospheric Structure of Global-Scale Multidecadal Variability

Prof. Peng Liu ( Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China )

We aim to identify the multi-decadal variability relative to the global warming trend in available observation data. First we apply the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) method to the global mean surface temperature (ST_gm) data to obtain a centennial global warming trend. Then the associated signals to the global warming trend are removed from three sets of climate variables including SST, ocean temperature from surface to 700 m, and the NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, respectively. All detrended variables are low-pass filtered. Through three independent EOF analyses of the filtered variables, all consistently show two dominant modes with their respective temporal variability resembles the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (PDO/IPO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The spatial structure of PDO-like mode is characterized by an ENSO-like structure and hemispheric symmetric features. The eigenvectors of AMO-like mode feature overall warm SST anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific basin north of 10oS. The atmospheric structure associated with the AMO-like mode also exhibits hemispheric asymmetric features with anomalous warm air in Eurasia, and cold air over southern oceans. In the past 30 years, the evolution of PDO-like and AMO-like oscillations gives rise to strong temperature trends resembling negative-phase PDO mode in Pacific, and positive-phase AMO mode in Atlantic. Globally, the two multi-decadal oscillations contribute an important part of the ST_gm warming. The two oscillations are expected to slow down the global warming trends in the next decade.

For related talk material, click here.

Tell Obama: There's No Climate Change To Fight

Tell Obama: There's No Climate Change To Fight

Investor's Business Daily 6/17/13: Apparently President Obama will announce yet another set of policies next month aimed at mitigating global warming. But why? The enemy he promises to fight simply doesn't exist.

News reports say that Obama will lay out his plans in July. The speculation is that his Environmental Protection Agency will issue, according to Bloomberg News, final rules that will "limit greenhouse-gas emissions from new power plants."

Politico quotes "top White House climate aide Heather Zichal" outlining four areas that "don't require any new laws or any new technologies."

It also reports that Zichal has said the administration will be "using the tools of the Clean Air Act to advance a broader climate agenda."

Politico expects, as well, that Obama will pursue "improved energy efficiency for homes and businesses, more investments by the Interior Department and other agencies to invest in clean energy research and production, and a phaseout of fossil fuel subsidies."

It isn't clear if a rejection on the Keystone pipeline will be a part of the package, though the pipeline still seems to be the green lobby's biggest bogeyman.

Whatever happens, though, is nothing more than political theater. It's about ensuring votes from the left, paying off support from that side and digging at the foundations of economic growth.

And for what? There's no global warming dragon to slay. It has been as much a myth as any fire-breathing lizard from a children's book.

A world that was supposed to be sick with a human-induced fever has gone 17 years and four months without any statistically significant warming.

As noted skeptic Christopher Monckton wrote last week on the wattsupwiththat blog, "There has been no global warming statistically distinguishable from zero for getting on for two decades."

We have also pointed out on these pages that ice-melt and sea-level-increase projections have been exaggerated; that the climate isn't as sensitive to carbon dioxide emissions as the alarmists have argued; and that sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic have been growing, not receding.

So what is Obama going to fight, besides prosperity, industry, capitalism and Republicans?

Actually, he sees those as his real enemies. Don't be fooled: global warming is merely a proxy for them.

The Rationale for Wind Power Won't Fly

Physical limitations will keep this energy source a niche provider of U.S. electricity needs.

By JAY LEHR

WSJ.COM 6/17/13: To understand the folly that drives too much of the nation's energy policies, consider these basic facts about wind energy.

After decades of federal subsidies—almost $24 billion according to a recent estimate by former U.S. Sen. Phil Gramm—nowhere in the United States, or anywhere else, has an array of wind turbines replaced a single conventional power plant. Nowhere.

Getty Images

But wind farms do take up space. The available data from wind-power companies, with which the Environmental Protection Agency agrees, show that the most effective of them can generate about five kilowatts per acre. This means 300 square miles of land—192,000 acres—are necessary to generate the 1,000 megawatts (a billion watts) of electricity that a conventional power plant using coal, nuclear energy or natural gas can generate on a few hundred acres. A billion watts fulfills the average annual power demand of a city of 700,000.

Taxpayer support for wind energy will eventually come to an end, I optimistically predict. The only question is how soon. My pessimistic guess is it will take another decade—by which time the number of wind turbines, currently about 45,000 according to the American Wind Energy Association, could more than double.

It is unclear whether very many wind-energy firms have sufficient monetary reserves to cover dismantling these behemoth lawn sculptures once the tax credits wind down or disappear. If not, the result will be a scene from a science fiction movie—as though giant aliens descended onto our planet only to freeze in place.

The promise that wind and solar power could replace conventional electricity production never really made sense. It's known to everybody in the industry that a wind turbine will generate electricity 30% of the time—but it's impossible to predict when that time will be. A true believer might be willing to do without electricity when the wind is not blowing, but most people will not. And so, during the 30% of the time the blades are spinning, conventional power plants are also spinning on low, waiting to operate during the other 70% of the time.

Importantly, the amount of electricity the wind can generate per acre of land is unrelated to the size of the turbines. Yes, by doubling the turbine's blade length you double the turbine's power output. The problem? If the turbines are big and tall you need fewer of them, but they must be more widely separated. If they're smaller you need more of them, closer together.

Another inescapable problem for electricity grids: The power generated by a wind turbine varies with the cube of the wind speed. When the wind speed doubles—say from 10 miles per hour to 20 miles per hour—the energy output increases eightfold (2 x 2 x 2). Someone, or some computer, has to balance these huge variations on the grid by calling on standby generators to produce more or less power to maintain the stability essential to the grid.

So, you might wonder, do high winds make turbines really hum? No. Turbines must be shut down in high winds because centrifugal force would begin to tear the blades apart. Also, the world has learned from experience in Europe—whose wind sculpture gardens may one day dwarf ours—that a one-millimeter buildup of bugs on the blades reduces their power output by as much as 25%.

There are other problems. Thousands of turbine breakdowns and accidents have been reported in recent years. The basic concrete foundations are suffering from strains, as reported by industry sources and on the wind-farm construction website windfarmbop.com.

And there are environmental factors. Annoying, low-frequency noise produced by wind turbines, particularly large turbines, is driving some people away from their homes, according to numerous press reports. (Low-frequency noise regulations are already in place in Denmark while the phenomenon is the subject of continuing research.) The Audubon Society now estimates bird deaths from turbines exceed a million per year.

Wind is at best a niche player in energy. Grandiose claims made on behalf of wind-generated electricity are rubbish, whether or not renewable-energy advocates admit it. Wind-power developers will milk taxpayers across the world out of a few billion more dollars, euros or pounds in subsidies, tax credits and the like, but sooner or later the public will wise up.

Dr. Lehr, a geological engineer and hydrologist, is science director of the Heartland Institute.

WSJ: The real point of cap and trade is for income redistribution while dodging accountability for raising taxes.

California's Cap-and-Tax Grab

Democrats raid carbon-emissions auction revenue to finance more welfare spending.

WSJ.COM 6/17/13: Democrats in Sacramento are taking a victory lap for balancing this year's budget without raising taxes (not counting the $6 billion retroactive hike voters approved at political gunpoint in November). The dirty little secret is they're instead tapping California's new cap-and-trade program.

California expects to generate $500 million this year from auctioning off permits to emit carbon, and between $2 billion and $14 billion annually by 2015. This rich new vein of revenues was supposed to flow to green programs (e.g., solar subsidies), but Governor Jerry Brown cut a deal with Democrats in the legislature to seize this year's proceeds to finance more generous welfare and Medicaid benefits. Environmentalists are suddenly stunned to discover that they're not exempt from Sacramento's generally accepted accounting principle of raiding internal accounts to backfill the budget.

Mr. Brown has vowed to repay the $500 million cap-and-trade "loan" in short order. But as a matter of law, he has until the California Air Resources Board (CARB) says it needs the cash to administer the cap-and-trade program. That may be never since CARB's expenditures are discretionary, and the quarterly auctions will produce gushers of revenues that guarantee the cap-and-trade fund never runs dry.

The board's chairwoman Mary Nichols, who's endorsing the raid, has tried to quell enraged environmentalists by reminding them that "the part about the cap-and-trade program that is reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it's the cap," and "not the revenue that we get from the allowances."

Good point, and one which businesses are making in a lawsuit that contends the state is levying an unconstitutional tax under the guise of a "regulatory fee." California's Prop. 13 (1978) requires a supermajority vote of the legislature to raise taxes. CARB circumvented this requirement in 2011 by setting up a state-run auction to sell permits and calling the profits "regulatory fees" that would be used to mitigate emissions.

But as the state Supreme Court underscored in its 1997 Sinclair Paint Co. opinion, regulatory fees cannot "exceed in amount the reasonable cost of providing the protective services for which the fees are charged" or be imposed for "unrelated revenue purposes."

California has never quantified the "reasonable cost" to protect the public from carbon emissions, and it's hard to argue that spending cap-and-trade dollars on welfare checks advances environmental objectives. The state doesn't need to auction off permits to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It could achieve its emissions targets by giving away permits for free and ratcheting the cap down over time.

In short, California Democrats are proving that the real point of cap and trade is to give politicians another revenue stream for income redistribution while dodging accountability for raising taxes. That's worth keeping in mind when liberals resurrect the scheme for the entire U.S.

New paper finds the oceans are a net source of CO2

A new paper published in Deep-Sea Research finds the ocean is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere, the opposite of claims by climate alarmists that the ocean removes CO2 from the atmosphere. According to the authors, "At the [research] site, the ocean is primarily a source of CO2 to the atmosphere, except during strong upwelling events." The paper also notes, "Astor et al.(2005) observed the interactions between physical and biochemical parameters that lead to temporal [over time] variations in fCO2 [CO2 flux from the] sea, finding that even during periods of high production, the CO2 flux between the ocean and the atmosphere decreased but remained positive, i.e. CO2 escaped from the ocean to the atmosphere."

The paper corroborates prior work by Salby, Humlum et al, Frölicher et al, Cho et al, Calder et al, Francey et al, Ahlbeck, Pettersson, and others demonstrating that man-made CO2 is not the driver of atmospheric CO2. This new work confirms the primary source of atmospheric CO2 is out-gassing from the oceans, which is due to decreased solubility with increased temperature.

The net transfer of CO2  was from the ocean to atmosphere during the study period from 1996-2009, shown by the positive flux values on vertical axis. The flux only dipped to negative values [net transfer from atmosphere to ocean] during brief periods.

Full paper available here:

Interannual variability in sea surface temperature and fCO2 changes in the Cariaco Basin

Y.M. Astor et al

We examined the variability of sea surface carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO2sea) and its relation to temperature at the Cariaco Basin ocean time-series location (10°30’N, 64°40’W) for the period from 1996 through 2008. Periods of warm (positive) and cold (negative) anomalies at the station were related to variability in coastal upwelling intensity. A positive temporal trend in monthly-deseasonalized sea surface temperatures (SST) was observed, leading to an overall increase of 1.13°C over 13 years. Surface fCO2 sea displayed significant short-term variation (month to month) with a range of 330 to 445µatm. In addition to a large seasonal range (58±17µatm), deseasonalized fCO2sea data showed an interannual positive trend of 1.77±0.43µatmyear⁻¹. In the Cariaco Basin, positive and negative anomalies of temperature and fCO2sea are in phase. An increase/decrease of 1°C coincides with an increase/decrease of 16–20µatm of fCO2sea. Deseasonalized fCO2 seanormalized to 26.05°C, the mean Cariaco SST, shows a lower rate of increase (0.51±0.49µatmyear⁻¹). Based on these observations, 72% of the increase in fCO2sea in Cariaco Basin between 1996 and 2008 can be attributed to an increasing temperature trend of surface waters, making this the primary factor controlling fugacity at this location. During this period, a decrease in upwelling intensity was also observed. The phytoplankton community changed from large diatom-dominated blooms during upwelling in the late 1990's to blooms dominated by smaller cells in the first decade of the twenty-first century. The average net sea [to] air CO2 flux over the study period is 2.0±2.6molCm⁻² year⁻¹ employing the Wanninkhof parameterization, and 2.1±2.5molCm⁻² year⁻¹ based on Nightingale's model. To further understand the connection between the changes observed in the Cariaco Basin, the relationships between interannual variability in the temperature anomaly with three modes of climate variability (AMO, NAO and ENSO) were examined.

Sign of the times: G8 Summit drops climate change from agenda

Climate change has been dropped from the agenda during this week's G8 Summit, and at the G8 summit´s website, climate change is "conspicuous in its absence. That did not used to be so. Back in 2007, 2008 or 2009, for example, climate was a key issue these countries fought over."

G8 Summit sidelines climate change agenda

World leaders unlikely to discuss global warming at two day summit, as Downing Street insists it remains fully committed to securing global deal in 2015

By Jessica Shankleman 17 Jun 2013
Climate change will be sidelined during this week's G8 summit, Downing Street has confirmed, despite a last ditch attempt from French President Francois Hollande to ensure the eight nations deliver a strong political signal to curb carbon emissions.

Fears that climate change had been dropped from the agenda of the two-day meeting in Northern Ireland were confirmed today, despite a pledge in last month's Queen's Speech that the issue would remain on the list of priorities for the UK's presidency this year.

A Downing Street spokeswoman told BusinessGreen that climate change was not on the agenda for the two-day meeting between leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the USA and the UK. Instead the focus will be on the conflict in Syria, trade talks, and measures to enhance tax transparency and tackle evasion.

"Obviously, they are only around for a short time, so they can't discuss everything," she said.

However, she insisted climate change had not been dropped from the agenda of the UK's year-long G8 presidency, as it will be discussed by foreign ministers during a meeting in July. International talks on the topic are expected to intensify over the next 24 months in the run up to a major UN summit in Paris in 2015, which is scheduled to deliver a flagship agreement on tackling emissions that will be formalised as a treaty in 2020.

"The G8 already has processess in place for climate change being taken forward, and [the issue] was already highlighted in April," the Downing Street spokeswoman said, referring to the most recent G8 meeting of foreign ministers. "It has not fallen off the agenda and we continue to be comitted to the UNFCCC process and trying to secure a binding agreement in 2015."

It remains to be seen whether climate change could still secure a reference in the G8 communique due to be released at the end of this week's summit, mirroring the vague commitment to renewed action on climate change contained in the Queen's Speech last month. But the decision to drop climate change from formal summit agenda will anger both the French, who are due to host the 2015 UN summit, and the Germans who previously lobbied the UK to include climate change for discussion this week.

____________________________________________

From the Greenpeace UK blog:

"Yet, if you look at the G8 summit´s website, climate change is conspicuous in its absence. That did not used to be so.

Back in 2007, 2008 or 2009, for example, climate was a key issue these countries fought over. Now it reportedly took heavy lobbying from Germany and France for Cameron (who promised to run the  "greenest government ever") to even agree to talk about climate change at all. With such bad preparation and lack of political capital being invested in getting the G8 to send a leadership signal on climate, it's hard to see how the summit can produce anything but meaningless platitudes."

Every job in UK wind farm industry is subsidized $157,000 per year

A UK wind farm is only spending $2.8 million per 'green job', a bargain compared to the US average expenditure of $9.8 million per 'green job'.

True cost of Britain's wind farm industry revealed

Every job in Britain’s wind farm industry is effectively subsidised to the extent of £100,000 per year, The Telegraph can disclose. [$157,000 US dollars per year]

By Robert Mendick, and Edward Malnick

9:00PM BST 15 Jun 2013  The Telegraph

1699 Comments

A new analysis of government and industry figures shows that wind turbine owners received £1.2billion in the form of a consumer subsidy, paid by a supplement on electricity bills last year. They employed 12,000 people, to produce an effective £100,000 [per year] subsidy on each job.

The disclosure is potentially embarrassing for the wind industry, which claims it is an economically dynamic sector that creates jobs. It was described by critics as proof the sector was not economically viable, with one calling it evidence of “soft jobs” that depended on the taxpayer.

The subsidy was disclosed in a new analysis of official figures, which showed that:

• The level of support from subsidies in some cases is so high that jobs are effectively supported to the extent of £1.3million each;

• In Scotland, which has 203 onshore wind farms — more than anywhere else in the UK — just 2,235 people are directly employed to work on them despite an annual subsidy of £344 million. That works out at £154,000 per job;

• Even if the maximum number of jobs that have been forecast are created, by 2020 the effective subsidy on them would be £80,000 a year.

One source, who owns several wind farms, and did not wish to be named, said: “Anybody trying to justify subsidies on the basis of jobs created is talking nonsense. Wind farms are not labour intensive.”

There has been mounting controversy about the value of both onshore and offshore wind farms, with discontent among back-bench Conservative MPs.

The industry’s trade body, Renewable UK, has campaigned to promote the method of electricity generation as a way to create jobs. It states on its website that: “We aim to create thousands of jobs across a wide range of business sectors.”

It says the industry currently employs 12,000 people and “is set to employ up to 90,000 people by 2020”.

The promise of future jobs is dependent on the building of large-scale wind farms at sea and the construction of factories in Britain to manufacture the turbines, which are currently almost all built abroad.

Industry figures show that for the 12 months to the end of February, the latest period for which figures are available, slightly more than £1.2billion was paid through the consumer subsidy — known as the Renewables Obligation.

It was introduced by Labour to encourage investment and is added to all energy bills, meaning that besides households, industry and employers also pay, adding to the cost of all goods and services.

According to the Renewable Energy Foundation, a think tank that has criticised the cost of wind farms, it currently adds about £47 to the average household’s cost of living.

They say the total subsidy is likely to rise to £6billion by 2020 if the Government meets its target of providing 15 per cent of energy needs from renewable energy.

The industry’s projection is that by 2020 it will create up to 75,000 jobs — an effective subsidy of £80,000 a year — but failing to reach that figure will raise the effective subsidy.

The foundation claims that the subsidy will actually cost jobs because businesses will relocate abroad — or close — to save on energy bills.

Households will also have less disposable income because more money will go to pay fuel bills.

Among the examples of extremely high subsidies effectively for job creation is Greater Gabbard, a scheme of 140 turbines 12 miles off the Suffolk coast.

It received £129million in consumer subsidy in the 12 months to the end of February, double the £65million it received for the electricity it produced. It employs 100 people at its headquarters in Lowestoft, receiving, in effect, £1.3million for every member of staff.

Iwan Tukalo, general manager of Greater Gabbard Offshore Wind Limited, which is co-owned by SSE and RWE, said building the farm was a £1.5billion investment in British infrastructure.

He added that “as well as supporting significant local employment during the four-year construction period”, 95 per cent of its permanent employees were local people.

The London Array, Britain’s biggest wind farm, with 175 turbines, employs 90 people at its base in Ramsgate, Kent. The array, which is 12 miles offshore, became fully operational in the spring. The foundation predicts its Renewables Obligation subsidy in its first year of full operation will be £160million — effectively £1.77million [$2.8 million USD] per job.

In Scotland, Fergus Ewing, the devolved government’s energy minister, published figures earlier this year showing that 2,235 jobs were “connected directly to onshore wind”. There are 203 wind farms across Scotland, and the scale of Renewables Obligation support means each post is underwritten by £154,000.

Wind farms are controversial not only because of the cost, but also because of claims that the turbines, which can be more than 400ft high, are ruining the countryside. Campaigners have said the planning system remains loaded in favour of developers and that too little of the countryside is protected from their spread.

Earlier this month David Cameron signalled that local people would have more say over wind farms in their areas. Developers would have to offer much greater compensation for building them, and planners will be compelled to take into account their visual impact and the views of locals.

But energy firms will be able to offer incentives, including lower power bills for local people, in return for planning permission, which critics say amount to “bribes”.

Campaigners also warn that turbines do not generate power when the wind is too low or too high, and cannot store it, meaning conventional generation is needed as a backup.

Dr John Constable, director of Renewable Energy Foundation, said: “Subsidies can create some soft jobs in the wind power industry but will destroy real jobs and reduce wages in other sectors, in the UK’s case because the subsidies cause higher electricity prices for industrial and commercial consumers. The extravagant subsidy cost per wind power job is an indication of the scale of that problem.”

He added: “Truly productive energy industries — gas, coal, oil, for example — create jobs indirectly by providing cheap energy that allows other businesses to prosper, but the subsidy-dependent renewables sector is a long way from this goal; it’s still much too expensive.”

Remainder at The Telegraph